Probably one of the most subjective, yet discussed topics in the local housing market is "When will the positive momentum stop? Are we heading for another correction?"
You'll hear many answers depending on who you speak to with real estate professionals having more bullish predictions, and the working class having more bearish predictions. Let's talk about the Iona McGregor submarket since that is the area we consider ourselves experts in. In general, Lee County is currently the 3rd fastest-growing metro area in the country. Between July 1, 2015 and June 30, 2016, the Cape Coral - Fort Myers metro area grew by 22,051 people, or 1,837 people per month.
Stating the obvious, people are flocking to our area because of the small town environment, warm climate, limited hurricane threats (compared to the rest of the Gulf Coast), its beaches, outdoor activities, and the absence of state income tax.
Another less discussed reason for inbound migration is the Trump effect that has resulted in a surge in the stock market where 401k and retirement portfolios have grown by double digits since the January inauguration. A robust and expensive housing market up north and in the midwest has resulted in a perfect situation for the baby boomers to cash in and relocate to Paradise.
Note: New Jersey / New York lead the country in outbound migration. Florida is the #1 destination for them.
Iona McGregor developers must focus on providing reasonably priced homes to meet buyer demands and it is challenging to say the least to do so. Land is expensive and scattered lots are even more expensive. The remodeling industry has fallen due to prospective buyers' feelings that they just don't have the time and energy for it like they used to. Modern Contemporary designs are taking the lead over Mediterranean homes. Look at what is happening along the Treeline corridor. Do you think those buyers would prefer similar homes at a similar price, but located just minutes from the Sanibel Causeway in the Iona McGregor area? Hell yes they would!
There is a very limited number of newer or updated homes priced under $500,000 in this area, which is why the Treeline communities like Marina Bay and Pelican Preserve are booming.
Due to the depleted inventory in Iona McGregor and the current levels of inbound migration, we expect our neighborhood to continue to be a hotbed for attention from buyers. While we don't expect significant jumps in home values over the next 3-5 years, we do anticipate healthy growth in the 3-5% per year range.
A big disconnect today is, in fact, unreasonable sellers, likely pushed by inexperienced real estate agents. Our group will not take a listing from a client if we feel that home will sit on the market for more than one seasonal cycle. It's a waste of our resources and a disservice to the seller. If a home has been on the market for more than 6 months, there is most certainly a disconnect the seller and their agent has with what the market truly can afford. If your home is on the market for more than 6 months, you may want to withdraw your listing or lower your price. Otherwise you'll experience nothing but false hope and frustration.
To conclude to our point, our prediction is that the Iona McGregor housing market will continue to be the most targeted area of Fort Myers. It is up to sellers if they want to make a deal and there are plenty of deals to be had if you have an experienced representative on your side as long as both parties agree to the fair market listing price. It is clear, however, that buyers are more price conscious today and if they feel priced out or cannot get what they want, the Treeline corridor will inherit that buyer.
New construction priced under $500,000 in Iona McGregor will be absorbed faster than anything if any can be built. Where is that product? Stay tuned. Allan Development Group is 15 days away from making a major announcement that will be a game changer.
If you are a buyer or seller in need of expert representation, please CONTACT US for a complimentary home valuation and consultation. No pressure or sales gimmicks here. Just facts backed up by data and our experience in Iona McGregor to further support the cause.
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